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Leotar vs Drina Zvornik — 1st League - RS 2019

Leotar
Leotar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Drina Zvornik
Drina Zvornik
11/2/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 14Stadion Police

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Leotar66%
×Draw21%
Drina Zvornik12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leotar
1.85
Drina Zvornik
0.64

Leotar creates 189% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 96 away

creates per match

Leotar
1.88
Drina Zvornik
0.71

allows per match

Leotar
0.56
Drina Zvornik
1.83

finishing

Leotar+0.00on par
Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leotar ↓

Drina Zvornik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leotar or draw
88%
Leotar or Drina Zvornik
79%
Draw or Drina Zvornik
34%

Winning margin

Leotar wins by 2+
40%
Drina Zvornik wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Leotar 1+ goals
84%
Leotar 2+ goals
55%
Leotar 3+ goals
28%
Drina Zvornik 1+ goals
47%
Drina Zvornik 2+ goals
14%
Drina Zvornik 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Leotar (draw refunded)
84%
Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leotar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.56 · 64 matches

Drina Zvornik away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leotar attack 1.88 + Drina Zvornik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Drina Zvornik attack 0.71 + Leotar defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Leotar scores more
66%
level
21%
Drina Zvornik scores more
12%

Leotar at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Leotar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leotar vs Drina Zvornik

Leotar beat Drina Zvornik 2-0 in 1st League - RS on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Police in Trebinje.