Leopard de Douala 1–0 Stade de Bertoua

Leopard de Douala

FT

1 – 0

Stade de Bertoua

4/15/2023

Elite Two · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Leopard de Douala42%

×Draw28%

Stade de Bertoua30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leopard de DoualaExpected goals in this matchStade de Bertoua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.00

Leopard de Douala

1.25

Stade de Bertoua

1.00

Leopard de Douala creates 25% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 18 away

1.10

creates per match

0.72

1.28

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Leopard de Douala

1.10

Stade de Bertoua

0.72

allows per match

Leopard de Douala

1.28

Stade de Bertoua

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leopard de Douala ↓

Stade de Bertoua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leopard de Douala or draw

70%

Leopard de Douala or Stade de Bertoua

72%

Draw or Stade de Bertoua

58%

Winning margin

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+

19%

Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals

71%

Leopard de Douala 2+ goals

36%

Leopard de Douala 3+ goals

13%

Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals

63%

Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals

26%

Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)

59%

Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leopard de Douala at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leopard de Douala attack 1.10 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leopard de Douala scores more

42%

level

28%

Stade de Bertoua scores more

30%

Leopard de Douala at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leopard de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff