Leopard de Douala vs Renaissance

Leopard de Douala

CANC

14:00

Renaissance

4/3/2024

Elite Two · Relegation Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Leopard de Douala42%

×Draw28%

Renaissance30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leopard de DoualaExpected goals in this matchRenaissance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.04

Leopard de Douala

1.30

Renaissance

1.04

Leopard de Douala creates 25% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

1.10

creates per match

0.79

1.28

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Leopard de Douala

1.10

Renaissance

0.79

allows per match

Leopard de Douala

1.28

Renaissance

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leopard de Douala ↓

Renaissance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leopard de Douala or draw

70%

Leopard de Douala or Renaissance

72%

Draw or Renaissance

58%

Winning margin

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+

19%

Renaissance wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals

73%

Leopard de Douala 2+ goals

37%

Leopard de Douala 3+ goals

14%

Renaissance 1+ goals

65%

Renaissance 2+ goals

28%

Renaissance 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)

59%

Renaissance (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leopard de Douala at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leopard de Douala attack 1.10 + Renaissance defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Renaissance attack 0.79 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leopard de Douala scores more

42%

level

28%

Renaissance scores more

30%

Leopard de Douala at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leopard de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff