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Leopard de Douala vs Lion Blessé — Elite Two 2020

Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
CANC
00:00
Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
4/16/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Leopard de Douala40%
×Draw28%
Lion Blessé32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leopard de Douala
1.22
Lion Blessé
1.05

Leopard de Douala creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 6 away

creates per match

Leopard de Douala
1.10
Lion Blessé
0.83

allows per match

Leopard de Douala
1.28
Lion Blessé
1.33

finishing

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par
Lion Blessé+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leopard de Douala ↓

Lion Blessé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leopard de Douala or draw
68%
Leopard de Douala or Lion Blessé
72%
Draw or Lion Blessé
60%

Winning margin

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
17%
Lion Blessé wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
70%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
34%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
12%
Lion Blessé 1+ goals
65%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
28%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
56%
Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leopard de Douala at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Lion Blessé away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leopard de Douala attack 1.10 + Lion Blessé defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Lion Blessé attack 0.83 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leopard de Douala scores more
40%
level
28%
Lion Blessé scores more
32%

Leopard de Douala at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leopard de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leopard de Douala face Lion Blessé (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with Leopard de Douala hosting Lion Blessé. Match starts April 16, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.