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Leopard de Douala vs Lausanne — Elite Two 2020

Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lausanne
Lausanne
3/19/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Leopard de Douala27%
×Draw28%
Lausanne45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leopard de Douala
0.93
Lausanne
1.31

Lausanne creates 41% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 12 away

creates per match

Leopard de Douala
1.10
Lausanne
1.33

allows per match

Leopard de Douala
1.28
Lausanne
0.75

finishing

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par
Lausanne+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leopard de Douala ↓

Lausanne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leopard de Douala or draw
55%
Leopard de Douala or Lausanne
72%
Draw or Lausanne
73%

Winning margin

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
9%
Lausanne wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
61%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
24%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
7%
Lausanne 1+ goals
73%
Lausanne 2+ goals
38%
Lausanne 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
37%
Lausanne (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leopard de Douala at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Lausanne away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leopard de Douala attack 1.10 + Lausanne defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.93

Lausanne attack 1.33 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leopard de Douala scores more
27%
level
28%
Lausanne scores more
45%

Lausanne at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Leopard de Douala 1–0 Lausanne

Leopard de Douala beat Lausanne 1-0 in Elite Two on March 19, 2023.