Leopard de Douala 4–2 Foncha ST: Result & Stats

Leopard de Douala

FT

4 – 2

Foncha ST

1/14/2023

Elite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Leopard de Douala48%

×Draw25%

Foncha ST27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leopard de DoualaExpected goals in this matchFoncha ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.16

Leopard de Douala

1.61

Foncha ST

1.16

Leopard de Douala creates 39% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 50 away

1.10

creates per match

1.04

1.28

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Leopard de Douala

1.10

Foncha ST

1.04

allows per match

Leopard de Douala

1.28

Foncha ST

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leopard de Douala ↓

Foncha ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Leopard de Douala or draw

73%

Leopard de Douala or Foncha ST

75%

Draw or Foncha ST

52%

Winning margin

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+

25%

Foncha ST wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals

80%

Leopard de Douala 2+ goals

48%

Leopard de Douala 3+ goals

22%

Foncha ST 1+ goals

69%

Foncha ST 2+ goals

32%

Foncha ST 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)

63%

Foncha ST (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leopard de Douala at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leopard de Douala attack 1.10 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.61

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leopard de Douala scores more

48%

level

25%

Foncha ST scores more

27%

Leopard de Douala at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leopard de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff