Leopard de Douala 1–2 FAP: Result & Stats

Leopard de Douala

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

FAP

12/28/2023

Elite Two · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Leopard de Douala36%

×Draw27%

FAP37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leopard de DoualaExpected goals in this matchFAP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.30

Leopard de Douala

1.27

FAP

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 50 away

1.10

creates per match

1.32

1.28

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Leopard de Douala

1.10

FAP

1.32

allows per match

Leopard de Douala

1.28

FAP

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leopard de Douala ↓

FAP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leopard de Douala or draw

63%

Leopard de Douala or FAP

73%

Draw or FAP

64%

Winning margin

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+

16%

FAP wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals

72%

Leopard de Douala 2+ goals

36%

Leopard de Douala 3+ goals

14%

FAP 1+ goals

73%

FAP 2+ goals

37%

FAP 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)

49%

FAP (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leopard de Douala at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

FAP away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.44 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leopard de Douala attack 1.10 + FAP defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

FAP attack 1.32 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Leopard de Douala scores more

36%

level

27%

FAP scores more

37%

FAP at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff