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Leonico vs Teixeira de Freitas — Baiano - 2 2019

Leonico
Leonico
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Teixeira de Freitas
Teixeira de Freitas
6/15/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 8Estádio Municipal José Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Leonico52%
×Draw21%
Teixeira de Freitas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leonico
2.09
Teixeira de Freitas
1.44

Leonico creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Leonico
0.94
Teixeira de Freitas
0.00

allows per match

Leonico
2.88
Teixeira de Freitas
3.25

finishing

Leonico+0.00on par
Teixeira de Freitas+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leonico ↓

Teixeira de Freitas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Leonico or draw
74%
Leonico or Teixeira de Freitas
79%
Draw or Teixeira de Freitas
48%

Winning margin

Leonico wins by 2+
31%
Teixeira de Freitas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leonico 1+ goals
88%
Leonico 2+ goals
62%
Leonico 3+ goals
34%
Teixeira de Freitas 1+ goals
76%
Teixeira de Freitas 2+ goals
42%
Teixeira de Freitas 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Leonico (draw refunded)
66%
Teixeira de Freitas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leonico at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

Teixeira de Freitas away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leonico attack 0.94 + Teixeira de Freitas defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.09

Teixeira de Freitas attack 0.00 + Leonico defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Leonico scores more
52%
level
21%
Teixeira de Freitas scores more
26%

Leonico at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leonico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leonico vs Teixeira de Freitas

Leonico beat Teixeira de Freitas 3-0 in Baiano - 2 on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Rocha in Jacobina, Bahia.