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Leonico vs Itabuna — Baiano - 2 2019

Leonico
Leonico
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Itabuna
Itabuna
Unknown 31'
Unknown 90+5', 74', 64'
Jussimar 16'
Caique 8'
5/4/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio Jodilton Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Leonico15%
×Draw19%
Itabuna67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leonico
0.97
Itabuna
2.29

Itabuna creates 136% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Leonico
0.94
Itabuna
1.69

allows per match

Leonico
2.88
Itabuna
1.00

finishing

Leonico+0.00on par
Itabuna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leonico ↓

Itabuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Leonico or draw
33%
Leonico or Itabuna
81%
Draw or Itabuna
85%

Winning margin

Leonico wins by 2+
5%
Itabuna wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Leonico 1+ goals
62%
Leonico 2+ goals
25%
Leonico 3+ goals
7%
Itabuna 1+ goals
90%
Itabuna 2+ goals
66%
Itabuna 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Leonico (draw refunded)
18%
Itabuna (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leonico at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

Itabuna away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leonico attack 0.94 + Itabuna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Itabuna attack 1.69 + Leonico defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Leonico scores more
15%
level
19%
Itabuna scores more
67%

Itabuna at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Itabuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Caique
16'
Jussimar
31'
64'
74'
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Leonico 1–5 Itabuna

Itabuna beat Leonico 5-1 in Baiano - 2 on May 4, 2025.

Goals: Caique (8'), Jussimar (16'), ? (31', 64', 74', 90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Jodilton Souza in Feira de Santana, Bahia.