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Leones Negros UDG vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Venados FC
Venados FC
4/19/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Leones Negros UDG53%
×Draw24%
Venados FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones Negros UDG
1.67
Venados FC
1.02

Leones Negros UDG creates 64% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 129 away

creates per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.75
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.06
Venados FC
1.58

finishing

Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones Negros UDG ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leones Negros UDG or draw
77%
Leones Negros UDG or Venados FC
76%
Draw or Venados FC
47%

Winning margin

Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
28%
Venados FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
81%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
50%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
23%
Venados FC 1+ goals
64%
Venados FC 2+ goals
27%
Venados FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
69%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones Negros UDG at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 134 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.75 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Leones Negros UDG scores more
53%
level
24%
Venados FC scores more
23%

Leones Negros UDG at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Leones Negros UDG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leones Negros UDG vs Venados FC

Leones Negros UDG beat Venados FC 3-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.