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Leones Negros UDG vs Tapatío — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tapatío
Tapatío
8/23/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Leones Negros UDG48%
×Draw25%
Tapatío28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones Negros UDG
1.60
Tapatío
1.16

Leones Negros UDG creates 38% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 104 away

creates per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.75
Tapatío
1.25

allows per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.06
Tapatío
1.45

finishing

Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par
Tapatío+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones Negros UDG ↓

Tapatío →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Leones Negros UDG or draw
72%
Leones Negros UDG or Tapatío
75%
Draw or Tapatío
52%

Winning margin

Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
25%
Tapatío wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
80%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
47%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
22%
Tapatío 1+ goals
69%
Tapatío 2+ goals
32%
Tapatío 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
63%
Tapatío (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones Negros UDG at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 134 matches

Tapatío away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.75 + Tapatío defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tapatío attack 1.25 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leones Negros UDG scores more
48%
level
25%
Tapatío scores more
28%

Leones Negros UDG at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leones Negros UDG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Tapatío

Leones Negros UDG and Tapatío drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.