Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leones Negros UDG vs Raya2 — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raya2
Raya2
3/23/2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Leones Negros UDG48%
×Draw26%
Raya226%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones Negros UDG
1.48
Raya2
1.00

Leones Negros UDG creates 48% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 34 away

creates per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.75
Raya2
0.94

allows per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.06
Raya2
1.21

finishing

Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par
Raya2+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones Negros UDG ↓

Raya2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leones Negros UDG or draw
74%
Leones Negros UDG or Raya2
74%
Draw or Raya2
52%

Winning margin

Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
24%
Raya2 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
77%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
43%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
19%
Raya2 1+ goals
63%
Raya2 2+ goals
26%
Raya2 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
65%
Raya2 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones Negros UDG at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 134 matches

Raya2 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.75 + Raya2 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Raya2 attack 0.94 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leones Negros UDG scores more
48%
level
26%
Raya2 scores more
26%

Leones Negros UDG at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leones Negros UDG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leones Negros UDG vs Raya2

Leones Negros UDG and Raya2 drew 0-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.