Leones Negros UDG 2–1 Loros Universidad

Leones Negros UDG

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Loros Universidad

11/10/2019

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Leones Negros UDG57%

×Draw21%

Loros Universidad21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones Negros UDGExpected goals in this matchLoros Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.17

Leones Negros UDG

2.05

Loros Universidad

1.17

Leones Negros UDG creates 75% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 11 away

1.75

creates per match

1.27

1.06

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Leones Negros UDG

1.75

Loros Universidad

1.27

allows per match

Leones Negros UDG

1.06

Loros Universidad

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Loros Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones Negros UDG ↓

Loros Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Leones Negros UDG or draw

79%

Leones Negros UDG or Loros Universidad

79%

Draw or Loros Universidad

43%

Winning margin

Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+

35%

Loros Universidad wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals

87%

Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals

61%

Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals

33%

Loros Universidad 1+ goals

69%

Loros Universidad 2+ goals

33%

Loros Universidad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)

73%

Loros Universidad (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones Negros UDG at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 134 matches

Loros Universidad away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.75 + Loros Universidad defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.05

Loros Universidad attack 1.27 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Leones Negros UDG scores more

57%

level

21%

Loros Universidad scores more

21%

Leones Negros UDG at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Leones Negros UDG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff