Leones Negros UDG 4–2 Irapuato: Result & Stats

Leones Negros UDG

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Irapuato

D. Munoz 87', 82'

R. E. Camacho Lastra 51'

A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago 46'

J. Ruiz 45'

B. Sanchez 8'

8/10/2025

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leones Negros UDG53%

×Draw24%

Irapuato23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones Negros UDGExpected goals in this matchIrapuato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.02

Leones Negros UDG

1.67

Irapuato

1.02

Leones Negros UDG creates 64% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 17 away

1.74

creates per match

1.00

1.05

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Leones Negros UDG

1.74

Irapuato

1.00

allows per match

Leones Negros UDG

1.05

Irapuato

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Irapuato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones Negros UDG ↓

Irapuato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Leones Negros UDG or draw

77%

Leones Negros UDG or Irapuato

76%

Draw or Irapuato

47%

Winning margin

Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+

28%

Irapuato wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals

81%

Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals

50%

Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals

23%

Irapuato 1+ goals

64%

Irapuato 2+ goals

27%

Irapuato 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)

69%

Irapuato (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones Negros UDG at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.05 · 137 matches

Irapuato away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.74 + Irapuato defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.67

Irapuato attack 1.00 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Leones Negros UDG scores more

53%

level

24%

Irapuato scores more

23%

Leones Negros UDG at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Leones Negros UDG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

28'

32'

42'

45+6'

45'

46'

46'

A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago

51'

R. E. Camacho Lastra↳ A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago

57'

J. Pucheta← J. Rangel

57'

G. Munoz← J. Gamboa

68'

J. Sosa← C. Santana

77'

L. Flores← R. Lopez

77'

A. Carreon← A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago

77'

M. Valenzuela← B. Flores

82'

D. Munoz

85'

M. Rivera← V. Alvarado

85'

87'

90'

90+5'

Leones

Irapuato

20

Hernandez

3

▼

5

16

31

6

10

▼

Rangel

28

▼

Gamboa

34

⚽

▼

Ruiz

19

A

▼

Santana

25

⚽

30

2

4

5

A

Torres

13

▼

Lopez

28

⚽A

▼

Santiago

10

Brigido

20

▼

Flores

7

▼

Rivera

8

▼

Fierro

9

⚽

Lastra

Manager: A. Sosa

28'▲J. Perez←▼C. Fierro

46'▲D. Munoz←▼E. Rivera

77'▲L. Flores←▼R. Lopez

77'▲A. Carreon←▼A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago

77'▲M. Valenzuela←▼B. Flores

Leones Negros UDG substitutes

25Rodriguez3Flores24Aguayo82Meza11Perez15Carreon81Madrigal86Torres87Valenzuela18Munoz

Manager: Daniel Alcántar García

57'▲J. Pucheta←▼J. Rangel

57'▲G. Munoz←▼J. Gamboa

68'▲J. Sosa←▼C. Santana

85'▲M. Rivera←▼V. Alvarado

85'▲J. Zamudio←▼J. Ruiz

Irapuato substitutes

1Magana4Rivera14Alba26Santillan7Sosa13Martinez23Zamudio9Pucheta17Cervantes22Munoz

Match Recap: Leones Negros UDG vs Irapuato

Leones Negros UDG beat Irapuato 4-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 10, 2025.

Goals: B. Sanchez (8'), J. Ruiz (45'), A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago (46'), R. E. Camacho Lastra (51'), D. Munoz (82', 87').

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.

Leones Negros UDG vs Irapuato — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Leones Negros UDG vs Irapuato