Leones FC 1–3 Jaguares: Result & Stats | Primera B

Leones FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Jaguares

A. Ceballos 42'

D. Rodriguez Urango 71'

A. Renteria 63'

A. F. Carabali R. 26'

5/5/2025

Primera B · Apertura - 14Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Leones FC34%

×Draw28%

Jaguares37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones FCExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.20

Leones FC

1.14

Jaguares

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 23 away

1.27

creates per match

1.48

0.92

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Leones FC

1.27

Jaguares

1.48

allows per match

Leones FC

0.92

Jaguares

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones FC+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones FC ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leones FC or draw

63%

Leones FC or Jaguares

72%

Draw or Jaguares

66%

Winning margin

Leones FC wins by 2+

14%

Jaguares wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Leones FC 1+ goals

68%

Leones FC 2+ goals

32%

Leones FC 3+ goals

11%

Jaguares 1+ goals

70%

Jaguares 2+ goals

34%

Jaguares 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leones FC (draw refunded)

48%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones FC at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.92 · 126 matches

Jaguares away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones FC attack 1.27 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Jaguares attack 1.48 + Leones FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Leones FC scores more

34%

level

28%

Jaguares scores more

37%

Jaguares at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

35'

37'

42'

46'

52'

52'

56'

62'

D. Rodriguez Urango← A. F. Carabali R.

62'

J. Julio← A. Gutierrez

62'

63'

67'

69'

69'

L. Palacios← J. Ramirez

71'

D. Rodriguez Urango

73'

D. Padilla← J. Roa

77'

M. Gomez← A. Renteria

82'

G. Meneses← D. Villa

82'

S. Mosquera← K. Tamayo

86'

J. Ruiz← J. Martinez

Leones

Jaguares

1

Figueroa

23

Lora

2

Saucedo

13

▼

Gutierrez

17

Viveros

14

Pino

25

▼

Roa

15

Maza

11

⚽

▼

Renteria

16

⚽

▼

R.

60

▼

22

30

26

28

▼

Ramirez

32

Marmolejo

8

▼

Villa

21

▼

Gomez

19

Rodas

10

▼

Martinez

7

▼

Tamayo

25

⚽

Ceballos

46'▲R. Fruto←▼S. Gomez

69'▲L. Palacios←▼J. Ramirez

82'▲G. Meneses←▼D. Villa

82'▲S. Mosquera←▼K. Tamayo

86'▲J. Ruiz←▼J. Martinez

Leones FC substitutes

1Holguin5Meneses24Ruiz9Valencia11Palacios29Fruto15Mosquera

Manager: A. Hernández

62'▲D. Rodriguez Urango←▼A. F. Carabali R.

62'▲J. Julio←▼A. Gutierrez

62'▲D. Reyes←▼K. Lenis

73'▲D. Padilla←▼J. Roa

77'▲M. Gomez←▼A. Renteria

Jaguares substitutes

26Padilla10Urango8Julio28Gomez12Arroyo32Reyes

Primera B: Leones FC 1–3 Jaguares

Jaguares beat Leones FC 3-1 in Primera B on May 5, 2025.

Goals: A. F. Carabali R. (26'), A. Ceballos (42'), A. Renteria (63'), D. Rodriguez Urango (71').

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui in Itagui.

Leones FC vs Jaguares — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Leones FC 1–3 Jaguares