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Leones FC vs Internacional de Bogota — Copa Colombia 2025

Leones FC
Leones FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
L. Ceballos 81'
J. Asprilla 31'
F. Chaverra 19'
5/28/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st Round - 1Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leones FC46%
×Draw26%
Internacional de Bogota29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones FC
1.50
Internacional de Bogota
1.13

Leones FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Leones FC
1.50
Internacional de Bogota
1.00

allows per match

Leones FC
1.25
Internacional de Bogota
1.50

finishing

Leones FC+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones FC ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leones FC or draw
71%
Leones FC or Internacional de Bogota
74%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
54%

Winning margin

Leones FC wins by 2+
23%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leones FC 1+ goals
78%
Leones FC 2+ goals
44%
Leones FC 3+ goals
19%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
68%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
31%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leones FC (draw refunded)
62%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones FC attack 1.50 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.00 + Leones FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leones FC scores more
46%
level
26%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
29%

Leones FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leones FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
F. Chaverra
31'
J. Asprilla
81'
L. Ceballos
Leones
Internacional
Felipe Merino
Manager: Felipe Merino
Diego Merino Rivera
Manager: Diego Merino Rivera

Match Recap: Leones FC vs Internacional de Bogota

Internacional de Bogota beat Leones FC 2-1 in Copa Colombia on May 28, 2025.

Goals: F. Chaverra (19'), J. Asprilla (31'), L. Ceballos (81').

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui in Itagui.