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Leones FC vs Depor FC — Primera B 2018

Leones FC
Leones FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Depor FC
Depor FC
10/18/2025Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 15Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Leones FC50%
×Draw27%
Depor FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones FC
1.46
Depor FC
0.91

Leones FC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 128 away

creates per match

Leones FC
1.29
Depor FC
0.88

allows per match

Leones FC
0.94
Depor FC
1.63

finishing

Leones FC+0.00on par
Depor FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones FC ↓

Depor FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leones FC or draw
76%
Leones FC or Depor FC
73%
Draw or Depor FC
50%

Winning margin

Leones FC wins by 2+
25%
Depor FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Leones FC 1+ goals
77%
Leones FC 2+ goals
43%
Leones FC 3+ goals
18%
Depor FC 1+ goals
60%
Depor FC 2+ goals
23%
Depor FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Leones FC (draw refunded)
68%
Depor FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 126 matches

Depor FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Depor FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Depor FC attack 0.88 + Leones FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leones FC scores more
50%
level
27%
Depor FC scores more
24%

Leones FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leones FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Leones FC 1–0 Depor FC

Leones FC beat Depor FC 1-0 in Primera B on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui in Itagui.