Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Leones del Norte52%
Mushuc Runa SC22%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Leones del Norte creates 74% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 29 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Leones del Norte ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches
Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Leones del Norte attack 1.30 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48
Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.00 + Leones del Norte defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Leones del Norte at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Independiente del Valle
MacaraLeones del Norte
Aucas
Barcelona SC
LDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FC
Delfin SC
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico UniversitarioMushuc Runa SC
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
Manta FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Leones del Norte host Mushuc Runa SC on Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 18:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC
Leones del Norte beat Mushuc Runa SC 3-1 in Liga Pro on May 17, 2026.
Goals: E. Griffa (31'), F. Mina (40'), J. Anangono (45' pen), D. Pazmino (90').
Mushuc Runa SC controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 17.
The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.