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Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
Preview
20:00
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
8/23/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 26Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
Big match
38%
Leones del Norte
model favours
38%28%34%

Independiente del Valle have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Leones del Norte38%
×Draw28%
Independiente del Valle34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones del Norte
1.23
Independiente del Valle
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 133 away

creates per match

Leones del Norte
1.30
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Leones del Norte
0.70
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw
66%
Leones del Norte or Independiente del Valle
72%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
62%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+
17%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals
71%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
35%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
13%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
68%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
31%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
53%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.30 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Leones del Norte defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leones del Norte scores more
38%
level
28%
Independiente del Valle scores more
34%

Leones del Norte at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leones del Norte are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Leones del Norte have scored in 11 games running
  • Independiente del Valle have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 79% of Independiente del Valle’s matches
  • Both teams score in 73% of Leones del Norte’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Leones del Norte 1 vs Independiente del Valle 2

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Norte
WDWWD
Valle
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leones del Norte face Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with Leones del Norte hosting Independiente del Valle. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Leones del Norte host Independiente del Valle at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.