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Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte — Liga Pro 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
4/25/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 11Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Independiente del Valle55%
×Draw26%
Leones del Norte19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.54
Leones del Norte
0.80

Independiente del Valle creates 93% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 10 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.77
Leones del Norte
0.80

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.79
Leones del Norte
1.30

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Leones del Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
81%
Independiente del Valle or Leones del Norte
74%
Draw or Leones del Norte
45%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
29%
Leones del Norte wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
79%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
45%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
20%
Leones del Norte 1+ goals
55%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
19%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
74%
Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.79 · 133 matches

Leones del Norte away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.77 + Leones del Norte defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Leones del Norte attack 0.80 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
55%
level
26%
Leones del Norte scores more
19%

Independiente del Valle at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte

Independiente del Valle beat Leones del Norte 2-1 in Liga Pro on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.