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Leones del Norte vs Ind. Juniors — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ind. Juniors
Ind. Juniors
10/3/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Championship Round - 6Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Leones del Norte43%
×Draw30%
Ind. Juniors27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones del Norte
1.15
Ind. Juniors
0.84

Leones del Norte creates 37% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 124 away

creates per match

Leones del Norte
1.15
Ind. Juniors
1.01

allows per match

Leones del Norte
0.68
Ind. Juniors
1.15

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par
Ind. Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Ind. Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw
73%
Leones del Norte or Ind. Juniors
70%
Draw or Ind. Juniors
57%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+
18%
Ind. Juniors wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals
68%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
32%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
11%
Ind. Juniors 1+ goals
57%
Ind. Juniors 2+ goals
21%
Ind. Juniors 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
62%
Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Ind. Juniors away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.15 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.15 + Ind. Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ind. Juniors attack 1.01 + Leones del Norte defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leones del Norte scores more
43%
level
30%
Ind. Juniors scores more
27%

Leones del Norte at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Leones del Norte 1–0 Ind. Juniors

Leones del Norte beat Ind. Juniors 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.