Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leones del Norte vs Imbabura — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Imbabura
Imbabura
W. Godoy 30' (pen)
D. Porozo 20'
8/15/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 22Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Leones del Norte55%
×Draw25%
Imbabura19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones del Norte
1.58
Imbabura
0.82

Leones del Norte creates 93% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

creates per match

Leones del Norte
1.35
Imbabura
1.09

allows per match

Leones del Norte
0.55
Imbabura
1.82

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par
Imbabura+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Imbabura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw
81%
Leones del Norte or Imbabura
75%
Draw or Imbabura
45%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+
29%
Imbabura wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals
79%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
47%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
21%
Imbabura 1+ goals
56%
Imbabura 2+ goals
20%
Imbabura 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
74%
Imbabura (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

Imbabura away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.35 + Imbabura defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Imbabura attack 1.09 + Leones del Norte defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Leones del Norte scores more
55%
level
25%
Imbabura scores more
19%

Leones del Norte at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
D. Porozo
26'
30'
W. GodoyPenalty
Leones
Imbabura
J. Zubeldía
Manager: J. Zubeldía
L. Espinel
Manager: L. Espinel

Liga Pro Serie B: Leones del Norte 2–0 Imbabura

Leones del Norte beat Imbabura 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 15, 2025.

Goals: D. Porozo (20'), W. Godoy (30' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.