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Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro 2026

Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
Preview
21:30
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
7/23/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 21Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
Big match
55%
Leones del Norte
model favours
55%26%18%

Leones del Norte are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Leones del Norte55%
×Draw26%
Guayaquil City FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones del Norte
1.50
Guayaquil City FC
0.74

Leones del Norte creates 103% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 96 away

creates per match

Leones del Norte
1.30
Guayaquil City FC
0.79

allows per match

Leones del Norte
0.70
Guayaquil City FC
1.70

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw
82%
Leones del Norte or Guayaquil City FC
74%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
45%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+
29%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals
78%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
44%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
19%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
52%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
17%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
75%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.70 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.30 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.79 + Leones del Norte defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Leones del Norte scores more
55%
level
26%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
18%

Leones del Norte at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leones del Norte have scored in 11 games running
  • Both teams score in 73% of Leones del Norte’s matches
  • Their last 9 meetings averaged just 1.1 goals
  • Guayaquil City FC fall short of their xG (0.8 vs 1.2 expected)
  • Leones del Norte outscore their xG (1.1 vs 0.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Leones del Norte
Balanced
Guayaquil City FC
Balanced
44%Possession52%
77%Pass accuracy82%
8.7Shots6.5
0.66xGBiggest gap1.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Leones del NorteGuayaquil City FC

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

3
Leones del Norte
4
Draws
2
Guayaquil City FC
Avg goals: 1.1BTTS: 22%
0–00–01–22–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Norte
WDWWD
FC
WDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leones del Norte face Guayaquil City FC (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with Leones del Norte hosting Guayaquil City FC. Match starts July 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Leones del Norte host Guayaquil City FC at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.