Leones del Norte 0–0 Guayaquil City FC

Leones del Norte

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guayaquil City FC

Unknown 8'

10/29/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Championship Round - 10Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Leones del Norte38%

×Draw33%

Guayaquil City FC29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones del NorteExpected goals in this matchGuayaquil City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.82

Leones del Norte

0.99

Guayaquil City FC

0.82

Leones del Norte creates 21% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

1.15

creates per match

0.97

0.68

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Leones del Norte

1.15

Guayaquil City FC

0.97

allows per match

Leones del Norte

0.68

Guayaquil City FC

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Guayaquil City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw

71%

Leones del Norte or Guayaquil City FC

67%

Draw or Guayaquil City FC

62%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+

15%

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals

63%

Leones del Norte 2+ goals

26%

Leones del Norte 3+ goals

8%

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

56%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

20%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)

57%

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.15 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.97 + Leones del Norte defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leones del Norte scores more

38%

level

33%

Guayaquil City FC scores more

29%

Leones del Norte at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff