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Leones del Norte vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
5/3/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 12Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Leones del Norte45%
×Draw28%
Emelec27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones del Norte
1.31
Emelec
0.94

Leones del Norte creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 131 away

creates per match

Leones del Norte
1.30
Emelec
1.18

allows per match

Leones del Norte
0.70
Emelec
1.33

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw
73%
Leones del Norte or Emelec
72%
Draw or Emelec
55%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+
21%
Emelec wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals
73%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
38%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
14%
Emelec 1+ goals
61%
Emelec 2+ goals
24%
Emelec 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
63%
Emelec (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.30 + Emelec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Emelec attack 1.18 + Leones del Norte defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leones del Norte scores more
45%
level
28%
Emelec scores more
27%

Leones del Norte at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leones del Norte vs Emelec

Leones del Norte beat Emelec 2-0 in Liga Pro on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.