Leones del Norte 2–0 Atlético Vinotinto

Leones del Norte

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Vinotinto

T. Ibarra 52'

M. Caramuto 11'

4/23/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 6Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Leones del Norte51%

×Draw29%

Atlético Vinotinto20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones del NorteExpected goals in this matchAtlético Vinotinto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.68

Leones del Norte

1.27

Atlético Vinotinto

0.68

Leones del Norte creates 87% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

1.35

creates per match

0.81

0.55

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Leones del Norte

1.35

Atlético Vinotinto

0.81

allows per match

Leones del Norte

0.55

Atlético Vinotinto

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Atlético Vinotinto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw

80%

Leones del Norte or Atlético Vinotinto

71%

Draw or Atlético Vinotinto

49%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+

24%

Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals

72%

Leones del Norte 2+ goals

36%

Leones del Norte 3+ goals

14%

Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals

49%

Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals

15%

Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)

72%

Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

Atlético Vinotinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.35 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atlético Vinotinto attack 0.81 + Leones del Norte defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Leones del Norte scores more

51%

level

29%

Atlético Vinotinto scores more

20%

Leones del Norte at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Caramuto

52'

T. Ibarra

Leones

Atlético

12

26

21

4

20

5

3

50

10

11

9

24

21

20

4

5

11

16

18

19

10

17

Manager: J. Zubeldía

Leones del Norte substitutes

13Ventura9Kestler50Caicedo8Borja88Oña3Arroyo6Vargas7Valencia12Cárdenas28Méndez54Ortiz77Velasco

Manager: L. Soler

Atlético Vinotinto substitutes

18Bonilla24Caicedo33Faccioli8Zambrano13Paz6Sánchez7Bolaño40Porozo59Macías

Match Recap: Leones del Norte vs Atlético Vinotinto

Leones del Norte beat Atlético Vinotinto 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on April 23, 2025.

Goals: M. Caramuto (11'), T. Ibarra (52').

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.

Leones del Norte vs Atlético Vinotinto — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Leones del Norte vs Atlético Vinotinto