Leon 3–3 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Leon

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

L. Di Yorio 79', 53'

J. Campbell 59'

E. Salvio 52'

G. Del Prete 45+6'

J. Dinenno 5' (pen)

7/10/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leon38%

×Draw26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.30

Leon

1.34

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.54

creates per match

1.21

1.39

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Leon

1.54

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

allows per match

Leon

1.39

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.14

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Leon-0.04on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Leon or draw

64%

Leon or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

74%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

62%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

17%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

74%

Leon 2+ goals

39%

Leon 3+ goals

15%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

73%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

37%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

51%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 6 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.54 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + Leon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leon scores more

38%

level

26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

36%

Leon at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

L. Di Yorio

Leon · F

8.5

Match Events

5'

J. DinennoPenalty

22'

O. Rodriguez

25'

F. Ambríz← F. Martínez

39'

J. Galindo

45+4'

P. Bennevendo

45+4'

R. Cota

45+6'

G. Del Prete↳ A. Aldrete

49'

J. Ruvalcaba

52'

E. Salvio↳ J. Ruvalcaba

53'

L. Di Yorio↳ B. Castillo

59'

J. Campbell↳ Y. Moreno

61'

Diogo← J. Ruvalcaba

61'

J. Rivas← P. Bennevendo

63'

G. Del Prete

66'

B. D. Castillo Segura

68'

Á. Mena← V. Dávila

78'

A. Alvarado← J. Campbell

78'

L. Montes← J. Rodríguez

78'

M. García← E. Salvio

79'

L. Di Yorio

88'

C. Gutiérrez← G. Del Prete

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonU.N.A.M.

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots17

6Corners1

17Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots17

5On Target8

3Off Target3

1Blocked6

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box10

Passing

46%Possession54%

341Total Passes423

278Accurate Passes351

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2