Leon vs Tigres UANL — CONCACAF Champions League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Leon60%
Tigres UANL15%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Leon creates 139% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Leon ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Leon at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches
Tigres UANL away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Leon attack 2.13 + Tigres UANL defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.65
Tigres UANL attack 0.88 + Leon defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.69
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 60%?"
Leon at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 60% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Los Angeles FCTigres UANL
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Cruz Azul
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Club America
Los Angeles Galaxy
Philadelphia Union
San Diego
Monterrey
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U.N.A.M. - Pumas
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LD Alajuelense
CD Olimpia
Xelajú
CS Cartagines
Forge
Real Espana
Mount Pleasant Academy
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Defence Force
Universidad O&MIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Leon host Tigres UANL on Thursday, 4 May 2023 at 02:00. The match is part of the CONCACAF Champions League 2018/2019 season.
CONCACAF Champions League: Leon 3–1 Tigres UANL
Leon beat Tigres UANL 3-1 in CONCACAF Champions League on May 4, 2023.
Goals: F. Ambríz (10'), Á. Mena (15'), R. Fulgencio (68'), A. Frías (79').
Tigres UANL controlled possession (54%) and registered 3 shots to 12.
The match was played at Estadio León in León de los Aldamas.