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Leon vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

Leon
Leon
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
3/12/2022Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Leon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leon41%
×Draw27%
Tigres UANL32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leon
1.33
Tigres UANL
1.15

Leon creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Leon
1.54
Tigres UANL
0.91

allows per match

Leon
1.39
Tigres UANL
1.12

finishing

Leon-0.04on par
Tigres UANL+0.20scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leon or draw
68%
Leon or Tigres UANL
73%
Draw or Tigres UANL
59%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+
19%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals
74%
Leon 2+ goals
38%
Leon 3+ goals
15%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
68%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
32%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)
56%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 6 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.54 + Tigres UANL defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tigres UANL attack 0.91 + Leon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leon scores more
41%
level
27%
Tigres UANL scores more
32%

Leon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Leon 0–3 Tigres UANL

Tigres UANL beat Leon 3-0 in Liga MX on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Leon in Leon.