Leon 1–1 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Leon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tigres UANL

F. Navarro 45'

F. Meza 74'

9/10/2020

Liga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leon41%

×Draw27%

Tigres UANL32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.15

Leon

1.33

Tigres UANL

1.15

Leon creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.54

creates per match

0.91

1.39

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Leon

1.54

Tigres UANL

0.91

allows per match

Leon

1.39

Tigres UANL

1.12

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Leon-0.04on par

Tigres UANL+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leon or draw

68%

Leon or Tigres UANL

73%

Draw or Tigres UANL

59%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+

19%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals

74%

Leon 2+ goals

38%

Leon 3+ goals

15%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

68%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

32%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)

56%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 6 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.54 + Tigres UANL defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tigres UANL attack 0.91 + Leon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leon scores more

41%

level

27%

Tigres UANL scores more

32%

Leon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

R. Cota

Leon · G

8.5

Match Events

35'

42'

43'

45'

62'

L. Fernández← L. Quiñónes

71'

J. Rodríguez← J. Meneses

71'

O. Rodríguez← N. Sosa

71'

J. Quiñones← E. Vargas

72'

Hugo Ayala

74'

F. Meza↳ L. Fernández

78'

J. Campbell← P. Aquino

78'

J. Sierra← J. Dueñas

80'

Guido Pizarro

80'

Guido Pizarro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonTigres

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots18

5Corners4

11Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots18

7On Target10

1Off Target4

2Blocked4

10Inside Box7

0Outside Box11

Passing

58%Possession42%

514Total Passes367

449Accurate Passes308

87%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

9Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1