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Leon vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

Leon
Leon
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Puebla
Puebla
4/12/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Leon50%
×Draw25%
Puebla25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leon
1.63
Puebla
1.09

Leon creates 50% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 142 away

creates per match

Leon
1.61
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

Leon
1.14
Puebla
1.65

finishing

Leon+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Leon or draw
75%
Leon or Puebla
75%
Draw or Puebla
50%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+
26%
Puebla wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals
80%
Leon 2+ goals
48%
Leon 3+ goals
22%
Puebla 1+ goals
66%
Puebla 2+ goals
30%
Puebla 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)
66%
Puebla (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 148 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.61 + Puebla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Puebla attack 1.05 + Leon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leon scores more
50%
level
25%
Puebla scores more
25%

Leon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leon 1 – 0 Puebla

Leon beat Puebla 1-0 in Liga MX on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio León in León de los Aldamas.