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Leon vs Necaxa — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Leon
Leon
FT
1 – 2
Necaxa
Necaxa
1/3/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Leon32%
×Draw19%
Necaxa49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leon
2.12
Necaxa
2.62

Necaxa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Leon
2.43
Necaxa
2.80

allows per match

Leon
2.43
Necaxa
1.80

finishing

Leon+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Leon or draw
51%
Leon or Necaxa
81%
Draw or Necaxa
68%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+
17%
Necaxa wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals
88%
Leon 2+ goals
62%
Leon 3+ goals
35%
Necaxa 1+ goals
93%
Necaxa 2+ goals
73%
Necaxa 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)
40%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 2.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Necaxa away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 2.43 + Necaxa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.12

Necaxa attack 2.80 + Leon defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Leon scores more
32%
level
19%
Necaxa scores more
49%

Necaxa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leon 1 – 2 Necaxa

Necaxa beat Leon 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 3, 2026.