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Leon vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Leon
Leon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Necaxa
Necaxa
7/22/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Leon48%
×Draw24%
Necaxa28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leon
1.67
Necaxa
1.21

Leon creates 38% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 139 away

creates per match

Leon
1.62
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Leon
1.14
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Leon+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Leon or draw
72%
Leon or Necaxa
76%
Draw or Necaxa
52%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+
25%
Necaxa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals
81%
Leon 2+ goals
50%
Leon 3+ goals
23%
Necaxa 1+ goals
70%
Necaxa 2+ goals
34%
Necaxa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)
63%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.14 · 146 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.62 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Leon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leon scores more
48%
level
24%
Necaxa scores more
28%

Leon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Leon 1–1 Necaxa

Leon and Necaxa drew 1-1 in Liga MX on July 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio León in León de los Aldamas.