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Leon vs Club Queretaro — Liga MX 2026

Leon
Leon
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
4/6/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 14Estadio León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Leon53%
×Draw24%
Club Queretaro23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leon
1.70
Club Queretaro
1.02

Leon creates 67% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 137 away

creates per match

Leon
1.62
Club Queretaro
0.91

allows per match

Leon
1.14
Club Queretaro
1.77

finishing

Leon+0.00on par
Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leon ↓

Club Queretaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Leon or draw
77%
Leon or Club Queretaro
76%
Draw or Club Queretaro
47%

Winning margin

Leon wins by 2+
29%
Club Queretaro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Leon 1+ goals
82%
Leon 2+ goals
51%
Leon 3+ goals
24%
Club Queretaro 1+ goals
64%
Club Queretaro 2+ goals
27%
Club Queretaro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Leon (draw refunded)
70%
Club Queretaro (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leon at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.14 · 146 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leon attack 1.62 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.70

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + Leon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Leon scores more
53%
level
24%
Club Queretaro scores more
23%

Leon at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Leon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leon vs Club Queretaro

Club Queretaro beat Leon 2-0 in Liga MX on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio León in León de los Aldamas.