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Leobendorf vs Traiskirchen — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Leobendorf
Leobendorf
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Traiskirchen
Traiskirchen
8/3/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 1Sportplatz Leobendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Leobendorf42%
×Draw24%
Traiskirchen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leobendorf
1.66
Traiskirchen
1.50

Leobendorf creates 11% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

creates per match

Leobendorf
1.59
Traiskirchen
1.73

allows per match

Leobendorf
1.28
Traiskirchen
1.73

finishing

Leobendorf+0.00on par
Traiskirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leobendorf ↓

Traiskirchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Leobendorf or draw
65%
Leobendorf or Traiskirchen
76%
Draw or Traiskirchen
58%

Winning margin

Leobendorf wins by 2+
21%
Traiskirchen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Leobendorf 1+ goals
81%
Leobendorf 2+ goals
49%
Leobendorf 3+ goals
23%
Traiskirchen 1+ goals
78%
Traiskirchen 2+ goals
44%
Traiskirchen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Leobendorf (draw refunded)
54%
Traiskirchen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leobendorf at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

Traiskirchen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leobendorf attack 1.59 + Traiskirchen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Traiskirchen attack 1.73 + Leobendorf defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leobendorf scores more
42%
level
24%
Traiskirchen scores more
35%

Leobendorf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leobendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Leobendorf 1–2 Traiskirchen

Traiskirchen beat Leobendorf 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Leobendorf in Leobendorf.