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Leobendorf vs Team Wiener Linien — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Leobendorf
Leobendorf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
8/24/2019Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 4Sportplatz Leobendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Leobendorf43%
×Draw24%
Team Wiener Linien32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leobendorf
1.60
Team Wiener Linien
1.35

Leobendorf creates 19% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 28 away

creates per match

Leobendorf
1.59
Team Wiener Linien
1.43

allows per match

Leobendorf
1.28
Team Wiener Linien
1.61

finishing

Leobendorf+0.00on par
Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leobendorf ↓

Team Wiener Linien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Leobendorf or draw
68%
Leobendorf or Team Wiener Linien
76%
Draw or Team Wiener Linien
57%

Winning margin

Leobendorf wins by 2+
22%
Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Leobendorf 1+ goals
80%
Leobendorf 2+ goals
47%
Leobendorf 3+ goals
22%
Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
74%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
39%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Leobendorf (draw refunded)
57%
Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leobendorf at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leobendorf attack 1.59 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Leobendorf defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leobendorf scores more
43%
level
24%
Team Wiener Linien scores more
32%

Leobendorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leobendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Leobendorf 1–0 Team Wiener Linien

Leobendorf beat Team Wiener Linien 1-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Leobendorf in Leobendorf.