Leobendorf 2–1 Austria Vienna (Am): Result & Stats

Leobendorf

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Austria Vienna (Am)

3/9/2024

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 18Sportplatz Leobendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Leobendorf33%

×Draw23%

Austria Vienna (Am)44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeobendorfExpected goals in this matchAustria Vienna (Am)

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.71

Leobendorf

1.46

Austria Vienna (Am)

1.71

Austria Vienna (Am) creates 17% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 33 away

1.59

creates per match

2.15

1.28

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Leobendorf

1.59

Austria Vienna (Am)

2.15

allows per match

Leobendorf

1.28

Austria Vienna (Am)

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leobendorf+0.00on par

Austria Vienna (Am)+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leobendorf ↓

Austria Vienna (Am) →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Leobendorf or draw

56%

Leobendorf or Austria Vienna (Am)

77%

Draw or Austria Vienna (Am)

67%

Winning margin

Leobendorf wins by 2+

15%

Austria Vienna (Am) wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Leobendorf 1+ goals

77%

Leobendorf 2+ goals

43%

Leobendorf 3+ goals

18%

Austria Vienna (Am) 1+ goals

82%

Austria Vienna (Am) 2+ goals

51%

Austria Vienna (Am) 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Leobendorf (draw refunded)

43%

Austria Vienna (Am) (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leobendorf at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

Austria Vienna (Am) away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leobendorf attack 1.59 + Austria Vienna (Am) defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Austria Vienna (Am) attack 2.15 + Leobendorf defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leobendorf scores more

33%

level

23%

Austria Vienna (Am) scores more

44%

Austria Vienna (Am) at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Austria Vienna (Am) will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff