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Leoben vs Liezen — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Leoben
Leoben
CANC
17:00
Liezen
Liezen
5/8/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 24Stadion Donawitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Leoben65%
×Draw18%
Liezen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leoben
2.37
Liezen
1.09

Leoben creates 117% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 42 away

creates per match

Leoben
2.00
Liezen
0.76

allows per match

Leoben
1.42
Liezen
2.74

finishing

Leoben+0.00on par
Liezen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leoben ↓

Liezen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Leoben or draw
84%
Leoben or Liezen
82%
Draw or Liezen
35%

Winning margin

Leoben wins by 2+
43%
Liezen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Leoben 1+ goals
91%
Leoben 2+ goals
68%
Leoben 3+ goals
42%
Liezen 1+ goals
66%
Liezen 2+ goals
30%
Liezen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leoben (draw refunded)
80%
Liezen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leoben at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

Liezen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leoben attack 2.00 + Liezen defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.37

Liezen attack 0.76 + Leoben defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Leoben scores more
65%
level
18%
Liezen scores more
16%

Leoben at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Leoben will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leoben face Liezen (Landesliga - Steiermark)

Landesliga - Steiermark returns with Leoben hosting Liezen. Match starts May 8, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Leoben host Liezen at Stadion Donawitz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.