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Leo Victor vs Voorwaarts — Eerste Divisie 2019

Leo Victor
Leo Victor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Voorwaarts
Voorwaarts
1/4/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Leo Victor33%
×Draw23%
Voorwaarts44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leo Victor
1.50
Voorwaarts
1.77

Voorwaarts creates 18% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

creates per match

Leo Victor
1.82
Voorwaarts
1.95

allows per match

Leo Victor
1.59
Voorwaarts
1.17

finishing

Leo Victor+0.00on par
Voorwaarts+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leo Victor ↓

Voorwaarts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Leo Victor or draw
56%
Leo Victor or Voorwaarts
77%
Draw or Voorwaarts
67%

Winning margin

Leo Victor wins by 2+
15%
Voorwaarts wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Leo Victor 1+ goals
78%
Leo Victor 2+ goals
44%
Leo Victor 3+ goals
19%
Voorwaarts 1+ goals
83%
Voorwaarts 2+ goals
53%
Voorwaarts 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Leo Victor (draw refunded)
43%
Voorwaarts (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leo Victor at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Voorwaarts away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leo Victor attack 1.82 + Voorwaarts defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.50

Voorwaarts attack 1.95 + Leo Victor defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leo Victor scores more
33%
level
23%
Voorwaarts scores more
44%

Voorwaarts at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Voorwaarts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leo Victor vs Voorwaarts

Voorwaarts beat Leo Victor 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on January 4, 2026.