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Leo Victor vs Robin Hood — Eerste Divisie 2019

Leo Victor
Leo Victor
FT
0 – 5
Robin Hood
Robin Hood
2/11/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 5Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Leo Victor22%
×Draw20%
Robin Hood59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leo Victor
1.36
Robin Hood
2.32

Robin Hood creates 71% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

creates per match

Leo Victor
1.82
Robin Hood
3.05

allows per match

Leo Victor
1.59
Robin Hood
0.90

finishing

Leo Victor+0.00on par
Robin Hood+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leo Victor ↓

Robin Hood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Leo Victor or draw
41%
Leo Victor or Robin Hood
80%
Draw or Robin Hood
78%

Winning margin

Leo Victor wins by 2+
9%
Robin Hood wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Leo Victor 1+ goals
74%
Leo Victor 2+ goals
39%
Leo Victor 3+ goals
16%
Robin Hood 1+ goals
90%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
67%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Leo Victor (draw refunded)
27%
Robin Hood (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leo Victor at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Robin Hood away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leo Victor attack 1.82 + Robin Hood defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.36

Robin Hood attack 3.05 + Leo Victor defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Leo Victor scores more
22%
level
20%
Robin Hood scores more
59%

Robin Hood at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leo Victor vs Robin Hood

Robin Hood beat Leo Victor 5-0 in Eerste Divisie on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.