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Leo Victor vs Flora Tallinn — Eerste Divisie 2019

Leo Victor
Leo Victor
FT
5 – 1
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
7/8/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 23Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Leo Victor51%
×Draw22%
Flora Tallinn28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leo Victor
2.04
Flora Tallinn
1.46

Leo Victor creates 40% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 12 away

creates per match

Leo Victor
1.82
Flora Tallinn
1.33

allows per match

Leo Victor
1.59
Flora Tallinn
2.25

finishing

Leo Victor+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leo Victor ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Leo Victor or draw
72%
Leo Victor or Flora Tallinn
78%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
49%

Winning margin

Leo Victor wins by 2+
30%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leo Victor 1+ goals
87%
Leo Victor 2+ goals
60%
Leo Victor 3+ goals
33%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
77%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
43%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Leo Victor (draw refunded)
65%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leo Victor at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leo Victor attack 1.82 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.04

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + Leo Victor defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Leo Victor scores more
51%
level
22%
Flora Tallinn scores more
28%

Leo Victor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leo Victor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Leo Victor 5–1 Flora Tallinn

Leo Victor beat Flora Tallinn 5-1 in Eerste Divisie on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.