Leo Victor 2–0 Flora: Result & Stats

Leo Victor

FT

2 – 0

Flora

6/22/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 14Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Leo Victor57%

×Draw20%

Flora23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leo VictorExpected goals in this matchFlora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.41

Leo Victor

2.31

Flora

1.41

Leo Victor creates 64% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 31 away

1.82

creates per match

1.23

1.59

allows per match

2.81

creates per match

Leo Victor

1.82

Flora

1.23

allows per match

Leo Victor

1.59

Flora

2.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leo Victor+0.00on par

Flora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leo Victor ↓

Flora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Leo Victor or draw

77%

Leo Victor or Flora

80%

Draw or Flora

43%

Winning margin

Leo Victor wins by 2+

36%

Flora wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leo Victor 1+ goals

90%

Leo Victor 2+ goals

67%

Leo Victor 3+ goals

40%

Flora 1+ goals

76%

Flora 2+ goals

41%

Flora 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Leo Victor (draw refunded)

71%

Flora (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leo Victor at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Flora away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leo Victor attack 1.82 + Flora defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.31

Flora attack 1.23 + Leo Victor defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Leo Victor scores more

57%

level

20%

Flora scores more

23%

Leo Victor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Leo Victor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff