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Flora vs Leo Victor — Eerste Divisie 2019

Flora
Flora
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Leo Victor
Leo Victor
3/22/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Flora27%
×Draw22%
Leo Victor51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora
1.45
Leo Victor
2.04

Leo Victor creates 41% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 57 away

creates per match

Flora
1.29
Leo Victor
1.79

allows per match

Flora
2.29
Leo Victor
1.60

finishing

Flora+0.00on par
Leo Victor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora ↓

Leo Victor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Flora or draw
49%
Flora or Leo Victor
78%
Draw or Leo Victor
73%

Winning margin

Flora wins by 2+
12%
Leo Victor wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Flora 1+ goals
77%
Flora 2+ goals
42%
Flora 3+ goals
18%
Leo Victor 1+ goals
87%
Leo Victor 2+ goals
60%
Leo Victor 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Flora (draw refunded)
35%
Leo Victor (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

Leo Victor away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora attack 1.29 + Leo Victor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Leo Victor attack 1.79 + Flora defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Flora scores more
27%
level
22%
Leo Victor scores more
51%

Leo Victor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leo Victor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Flora 1–3 Leo Victor

Leo Victor beat Flora 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 22, 2026.