Leo Victor 1–0 Broki: Result & Stats

Leo Victor

FT

1 – 0

Broki

2/23/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 4Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Leo Victor46%

×Draw22%

Broki32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leo VictorExpected goals in this matchBroki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.56

Leo Victor

1.90

Broki

1.56

Leo Victor creates 22% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

1.82

creates per match

1.53

1.59

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Leo Victor

1.82

Broki

1.53

allows per match

Leo Victor

1.59

Broki

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leo Victor+0.00on par

Broki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leo Victor ↓

Broki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Leo Victor or draw

68%

Leo Victor or Broki

78%

Draw or Broki

54%

Winning margin

Leo Victor wins by 2+

25%

Broki wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leo Victor 1+ goals

85%

Leo Victor 2+ goals

56%

Leo Victor 3+ goals

29%

Broki 1+ goals

79%

Broki 2+ goals

46%

Broki 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Leo Victor (draw refunded)

59%

Broki (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leo Victor at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Broki away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.97 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leo Victor attack 1.82 + Broki defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.90

Broki attack 1.53 + Leo Victor defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leo Victor scores more

46%

level

22%

Broki scores more

32%

Leo Victor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leo Victor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff