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Broki vs Leo Victor — Eerste Divisie 2019

Broki
Broki
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leo Victor
Leo Victoradvanced
5/21/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Broki28%
×Draw21%
Leo Victor52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broki
1.58
Leo Victor
2.20

Leo Victor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 57 away

creates per match

Broki
1.56
Leo Victor
1.79

allows per match

Broki
2.61
Leo Victor
1.60

finishing

Broki+0.00on par
Leo Victor+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broki ↓

Leo Victor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Broki or draw
48%
Broki or Leo Victor
79%
Draw or Leo Victor
72%

Winning margin

Broki wins by 2+
13%
Leo Victor wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Broki 1+ goals
79%
Broki 2+ goals
47%
Broki 3+ goals
21%
Leo Victor 1+ goals
89%
Leo Victor 2+ goals
64%
Leo Victor 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Broki (draw refunded)
35%
Leo Victor (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broki at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.61 · 61 matches

Leo Victor away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broki attack 1.56 + Leo Victor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Leo Victor attack 1.79 + Broki defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Broki scores more
28%
level
21%
Leo Victor scores more
52%

Leo Victor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leo Victor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Broki 0–1 Leo Victor

Leo Victor beat Broki 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on May 21, 2026.