Lens W 1–2 Paris FC W: Result & Stats

Lens W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Paris FC W

M. Revelli 19'

K. Jedlinska 72'

L. Azzaro 46'

11/7/2025

Feminine Division 1 · Round 7Degouve-Brabant Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lens W20%

×Draw21%

Paris FC W59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lens WExpected goals in this matchParis FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

2.02

Lens W

1.07

Paris FC W

2.02

Paris FC W creates 89% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 87 away

1.00

creates per match

1.93

2.10

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Lens W

1.00

Paris FC W

1.93

allows per match

Lens W

2.10

Paris FC W

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lens W+0.00on par

Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lens W ↓

Paris FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Lens W or draw

41%

Lens W or Paris FC W

79%

Draw or Paris FC W

80%

Winning margin

Lens W wins by 2+

7%

Paris FC W wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Lens W 1+ goals

66%

Lens W 2+ goals

29%

Lens W 3+ goals

9%

Paris FC W 1+ goals

87%

Paris FC W 2+ goals

60%

Paris FC W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Lens W (draw refunded)

25%

Paris FC W (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lens W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lens W attack 1.00 + Paris FC W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Paris FC W attack 1.93 + Lens W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lens W scores more

20%

level

21%

Paris FC W scores more

59%

Paris FC W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Revelli

Lens W · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

M. Revelli↳ F. Proniez

42'

Océane Picard

46'

N. Vagre← S. Jeudy

46'

L. Azzaro

61'

M. Garbino← L. Azzaro

61'

S. Scott← O. Picard

64'

C. Polito← T. David

64'

K. El Koumir← C. Bertrand

65'

Dayana Pierre Louis

72'

K. Jedlinska

78'

C. Hocine← M. N'Dongala

78'

M. Mendy← A. Le Moguedec

81'

S. Guellati← J. Limage

83'

N. Haheim← K. Jedlinska

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LensParis

Overview

32%Possession68%

3Total Shots14

3Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

3Total Shots14

1On Target8

1Off Target3

1Blocked3

2Inside Box9

1Outside Box5

Passing

32%Possession68%

268Total Passes574

151Accurate Passes453

56%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1