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Lens vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Lens
Lens
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Niort
Niort
G. Kyei 63'
M. Chouiar 54'
F. Lapis 33' (OG)
A. Gomis 7' (pen)
V. Jacob 42'
2/25/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Lens56%
×Draw26%
Niort18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lens
1.52
Niort
0.75

Lens creates 103% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 93 away

creates per match

Lens
1.49
Niort
0.84

allows per match

Lens
0.66
Niort
1.55

finishing

Lens+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lens ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lens or draw
82%
Lens or Niort
74%
Draw or Niort
44%

Winning margin

Lens wins by 2+
29%
Niort wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lens 1+ goals
78%
Lens 2+ goals
45%
Lens 3+ goals
20%
Niort 1+ goals
53%
Niort 2+ goals
17%
Niort 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lens (draw refunded)
75%
Niort (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lens at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.66 · 35 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lens attack 1.49 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Niort attack 0.84 + Lens defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lens scores more
56%
level
26%
Niort scores more
18%

Lens at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
V. JacobNiortNiort · M
7.5

Match Events

7'
A. GomisPenalty
33'
F. LapisOwn goal
39'
Cheick Oumar Doucouré
42'
V. Jacob↳ J. Da Costa
46'
Y. Bourhane← B. Konaté
54'
M. Chouiar↳ C. Doucoure
61'
J. Vachoux← J. Leca
63'
G. Kyei
64'
S. Diarra← A. Bencharki
70'
A. Dabasse← Z. Koné
77'
T. Vion← D. Djigla
79'
T. Ambrose← G. Kyei

Possession

46%Lens

Shots

8Lens

Pass accuracy

50%Lens

Statistics

LensNiort
Overview
46%Possession54%
8Total Shots11
3Corners2
14Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots11
4On Target1
2Off Target6
2Blocked4
5Inside Box4
3Outside Box7
Passing
46%Possession54%
390Total Passes454
313Accurate Passes368
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls13
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Lens 4 – 1 Niort

Lens beat Niort 4-1 in Ligue 2 on February 25, 2019.

Goals: A. Gomis (7' pen), F. Lapis (33' o.g.), V. Jacob (42'), M. Chouiar (54'), G. Kyei (63').

Niort controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens.