Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lens vs Lorient — Ligue 1 2018

Lens
Lens
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lorient
Lorient
David Pereira da Costa 81'
E. Wahi 57'
5/3/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 32Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Lens55%
×Draw23%
Lorient22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lens
1.84
Lorient
1.08

Lens creates 70% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

creates per match

Lens
1.98
Lorient
1.04

allows per match

Lens
1.11
Lorient
1.70

finishing

Lens-0.37scores less
Lorient-0.04on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lens ↓

Lorient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lens or draw
78%
Lens or Lorient
77%
Draw or Lorient
45%

Winning margin

Lens wins by 2+
31%
Lorient wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lens 1+ goals
84%
Lens 2+ goals
55%
Lens 3+ goals
28%
Lorient 1+ goals
66%
Lorient 2+ goals
29%
Lorient 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lens (draw refunded)
71%
Lorient (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lens at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lens attack 1.98 + Lorient defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.84

Lorient attack 1.04 + Lens defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lens scores more
55%
level
23%
Lorient scores more
22%

Lens at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
B. SambaLensLens · G
8.2

Match Events

20'
Tiemoué Bakayoko
46'
M. Haïdara← K. Danso
57'
E. Wahi↳ N. Mendy
58'
Elye Wahi
71'
Panos Katseris
78'
W. Saïd← E. Wahi
78'
A. Thomasson← A. Fulgini
79'
B. Bouanani← T. Bakayoko
79'
E. Kroupi← M. Bamba
79'
G. Kalulu← P. Katseris
81'
David Pereira da Costa↳ A. Thomasson
82'
R. Aguilar← D. Machado
87'
S. Abdul Samed← David Pereira da Costa

Possession

57%Lens

Shots

19Lens

Pass accuracy

52%Lens

Statistics

LensLorient
Overview
57%Possession43%
19Total Shots11
2.19Expected Goals (xG)0.50
4Corners4
10Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots11
6On Target5
10Off Target2
3Blocked4
16Inside Box8
3Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
535Total Passes410
459Accurate Passes327
86%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Lens vs Lorient

Lens beat Lorient 2-0 in Ligue 1 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: E. Wahi (57'), David Pereira da Costa (81').

Lens controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens.