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Leningradets vs Zenit Irkutsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Leningradets
Leningradets
CANC
12:00
Zenit Irkutsk
Zenit Irkutsk
4/29/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Leningradets70%
×Draw19%
Zenit Irkutsk11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
2.04
Zenit Irkutsk
0.64

Leningradets creates 219% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 6 away

creates per match

Leningradets
2.24
Zenit Irkutsk
0.50

allows per match

Leningradets
0.78
Zenit Irkutsk
1.83

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Zenit Irkutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
89%
Leningradets or Zenit Irkutsk
81%
Draw or Zenit Irkutsk
30%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
45%
Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
87%
Leningradets 2+ goals
60%
Leningradets 3+ goals
33%
Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals
47%
Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals
14%
Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
87%
Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Zenit Irkutsk away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 2.24 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Zenit Irkutsk attack 0.50 + Leningradets defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Leningradets scores more
70%
level
19%
Zenit Irkutsk scores more
11%

Leningradets at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leningradets vs Zenit Irkutsk — Match Preview

Leningradets face Zenit Irkutsk on April 29, 2021 in this Second League - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.