Leningradets 3–1 Yadro St. Petersburg

Leningradets

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Yadro St. Petersburg

10/15/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Petrovskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Leningradets61%

×Draw21%

Yadro St. Petersburg17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeningradetsExpected goals in this matchYadro St. Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.95

Leningradets

1.99

Yadro St. Petersburg

0.95

Leningradets creates 109% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

2.24

creates per match

1.13

0.78

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Leningradets

2.24

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.13

allows per match

Leningradets

0.78

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par

Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Yadro St. Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw

83%

Leningradets or Yadro St. Petersburg

79%

Draw or Yadro St. Petersburg

39%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+

37%

Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals

86%

Leningradets 2+ goals

59%

Leningradets 3+ goals

32%

Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals

61%

Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals

25%

Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)

78%

Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Yadro St. Petersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 2.24 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.99

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.13 + Leningradets defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Leningradets scores more

61%

level

21%

Yadro St. Petersburg scores more

17%

Leningradets at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff